Multi-Asset Weekly Newsletter

Global Developments & Global Equities

PRECIOUS METALS RALLY AS MARKETS BRACE FOR US ELECTIONS

The focus over the coming few weeks will shift toward US elections as we approach the election date I.e. 5th November. Betting markets seem to have Trump ahead at 60/40 while polling averages are still about 50/50. After a stronger-than-expected NFP print and higher-than-expected CPI, US September Retail Sales too beat estimates. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25bps cut at the November policy. It is priced at 40bps for cuts by the end of December. 

NIFTY V/S GLOBAL MARKETS

S&P500 gained for the 6th straight week to end 0.8% higher at record highs on stronger-than-expected earnings reported by big banks and Nvidia. It is the longest winning streak of 2024. 

Shanghai composite rose 1.4% while Nikkei fell 1.6%. The broader index of European equities rose 0.6% this week. 

 

Domestic Equities 

The benchmark Nifty fell 0.4% this week, in line with the MSCI EM index. The Midcap index ended 1% lower while Smallcap index rose 0.1%. The Nifty is down 3.7% MTD which seems a relatively modest drop, considering that FPIs have pulled out more than USD 9.2bn from domestic equities in October so far. Auto stocks were the laggards this week with the auto index falling 4.9%.  

The Bank Nifty rose 0.6% this week. Realty index too ended the week 0.6% higher. Nifty P/E stands at 23.4 on a trailing 12 Month basis. INVIX continues to remain subdued around 13.